Program your thermostat to drop 7 to 10 degrees for the eight hours you sleep, and set the schedule before the first cold week. The Energy Department says that setback can save as much as 10% a year on heating and cooling, more than this winter’s projected increase in the average heating bill.
In September 2026, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projected that households will spend $1,030 on average to heat their homes this winter, $82 more than last year. How much of that increase reaches you depends on your fuel.
For natural gas, the forecasts split. NEADA expects a 5.8% rise, while the American Gas Association expects households that heat with gas to spend 14% less. NEADA projects electric heat up 9.0%, propane up 8.7%, and heating oil up 31.3%.
Whatever your fuel, the simplest counter is a nightly setback. By our math, the full 10% on the $1,030 average comes to $103, more than the projected increase. The Energy Department’s Building America guidance adds that the share saved runs higher in mild climates than in cold ones.
A schedule beats willpower, because a setback only pays on the nights it runs. Program the drop to start at bedtime and the warm-up to finish just before you get up. Then add the move that fits your fuel:
- With a heat pump, use a thermostat with adaptive recovery, which leans on the heat pump itself and minimizes its costlier electric backup heat.
- With gas or electric heat, treat the utility’s budget billing as a smoother bill, not a smaller one. It evens out your monthly payments but doesn’t lower the total.
- With oil or propane, ask your dealer about a capped-price plan, which sets a ceiling on the per-gallon price for the season, before you prepay at today’s prices. Ask whether you pay less if prices fall and whether it carries a setup fee. On oil, the projected jump is bigger than a setback alone can offset.
Aim for the deepest setback you can sleep through, up to 10 degrees, and let the schedule run it every night.
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