Program your thermostat to drop 7 to 10 degrees while you sleep, and set the schedule before the first cold week. The Energy Department says that setback can save as much as 10% a year on heating and cooling, more than the average heating bill’s projected increase this winter. A 10% saving won’t cover heating oil’s projected 50% jump.
In September 2026, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projected that households will spend $1,030 on average to heat their homes this winter, $82 more than last year.
By our math, the full 10% saving on that $1,030 average comes to $103, more than the $82 increase. For heating oil, which NEADA projects up about 50%, a 10% saving falls well short. The Energy Department also notes that you save a bigger percentage in mild climates than in cold ones.
Use your thermostat’s schedule instead of turning the heat down by hand each night, since you save only on the nights the setback happens. Program the drop to start at bedtime and the warm-up to finish just before you get up. Then add the move that fits your fuel:
- With a heat pump, use a thermostat with adaptive recovery, which starts warming the house early and gradually so the heat pump does the work instead of its costlier electric backup heat.
- With gas or electric heat, ask your utility about budget billing, which spreads your yearly bill into roughly equal monthly payments. It evens out the high winter bills but doesn’t lower what you pay over the year.
- With oil or propane, ask your dealer about a capped-price plan, which sets the most you’ll pay per gallon this season. Ask whether you’d pay less if prices fall and whether the plan carries a setup fee.
Aim for the deepest setback you can sleep through, up to 10 degrees, and let the schedule run it every night.
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