Employers price new hires at market rate but base your raises on your current salary, which is why job switching out-earned staying for most of the past decade. The switching premium shrinks or disappears when hiring cools, so compare your market rate before you assume either path pays more. Loyalty should be a decision, not a default.
The mechanics work against stayers. Most companies set raises from a fixed merit pool, while recruiting budgets flex to whatever the market demands. Your next raise is anchored to your current salary. A competing offer is anchored to what the market says you’re worth.
That gap is why switching paid so well for so long. During the 2021 to 2022 hiring frenzy, job changers saw median pay bumps near 16% according to ADP, roughly double what stayers got. By early 2026 the premium had shrunk to under 2 percentage points, the smallest gap since 2020, and in fields like hospitality and IT, stayers out-earned leavers. Neither path wins by default. The answer depends on when you ask.
So ask. Check posted salary ranges for your role. Pay transparency laws now require them in many states. The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker shows whether switchers or stayers are winning right now, free and updated monthly.
Then price yourself directly. Apply for two or three comparable roles and see what comes back. Count the full package, not just base pay. An unvested 401(k) match, a pending bonus, or banked vacation time can erase a modest bump from a new offer. If the market prices you above your current pay, bring that data to your manager or take the offer. If it doesn’t, staying is the better trade, and now you know instead of wondering.
Re-run the numbers once a year, around review season. Some years the answer is go. Some years it’s stay. Either way, it was your call, made on purpose.
Editorial & Advertiser Disclosure: The editorial content on this page is not provided, commissioned, reviewed, approved, or otherwise endorsed by any advertiser. Opinions expressed here are ours alone, not those of any advertiser. The offers that appear on this site are from companies that compensate us. That compensation may influence which products we cover and where and how they appear on a page – including the order in which they appear – but it does not influence our evaluations, ratings, or opinions. We do not include every company or offer available in the marketplace.
Related:
